时事经纬
31-08-09
中国：缅甸难民开始陆续返回
云南省官员称，随著缅甸境内局势的改善，为躲避战火逃入中国的缅甸难民开始陆续回国。缅甸政府军与果敢地方武装的冲突还造成14名中国边民在缅甸境内死伤，其中一死13伤。
在进入中国避难的3.7万名缅甸难民中，1.3万余人接受了政府安置救助；有些则投亲靠友；还有些在果敢地区经商或打工的中国边民已经返回自己家中。
目前，缅甸政府军已经基本控制了果敢地区，部分果敢地方武装的士逃入中国境内。中国军队要求果敢士兵脱下他们的绿色军装，换上蓝色服装后去难民安置点去寻找亲戚朋友住下来。
进入中国的难民绝大多数是果敢族、也就是中国所称的汉族。在谈到重返家园问题时他们表示，这要取决于缅甸政府对他们的政策与态度。
缅甸政府声明说，果敢地区局势“已经恢复正常”。掸邦北部第一特区（果敢地区）临时领导委员会已经成立，正在中央政府领导下处理当地事务。报道说，近期在果敢地区发生的武装冲突造成26名军警死亡、47名军警受伤。
果敢特区政府主席彭家声目前下落不明，有报道说，他已逃离果敢。
伊拉克官员:美方释放自杀炸弹袭击者
伊拉克一名高级官员说，这个月早些时候制造爆炸事件的自杀卡车炸弹袭击者是最近美国刚刚释放的人。这次爆炸导致至少100人死亡。这名伊拉克官员星期天说，这名袭击伊拉克外交部的炸弹袭击者曾经被关押在美国的拘留营--布卡营。布卡营位于伊拉克南部，今年九月即将关闭。依照今年初生效的安全协定，美军已经释放5000多名被关押者，并向伊拉克移交了大约1200名在押人员。一些伊拉克人抱怨说，被释放的人再次从事暴力活动。
北约补给车队在巴基斯坦遇袭
巴基斯坦官员正在调查一个巴基斯坦和阿富汗之间的过境点发生的一起爆炸事件。这起爆炸造成至少十六辆为北约部队运送补给和燃油的车辆被烧毁。警方怀疑，星期日晚间，在巴卢奇斯坦省的查曼过境点，一枚被安装在一辆油罐车底部的炸弹爆炸，引起大火，殃及周围其它卡车。
切尼称布什政策是捍卫国家
美国前副总统迪克.切尼说，司法部调查讯问人员在审讯恐怖主义嫌疑人是否违法的决定，是出于政治动机。切尼在星期天播出的电视采访中说，这些调查设下了“可怕的先例”。他说这将破坏美国用人从事艰难工作的长期能力。最近中情局发布的报告显示，在2001年9/11恐怖攻击后的几年，美国使用了“增强讯问手段”。切尼说，布什政府的政策捍卫了国家，防止美国遭受基地组织发动的造成大规模伤亡的恐怖袭击。
金正日呼吁朝美签署和平协定
金正日说，“只有美国放弃对朝鲜共和国的敌对政策，并签署朝美和平协定，才能缓和紧张状态，才能消除战争威胁。”平壤广播表示，金正日在1999年9月29日也曾表示：“为消除战争威胁并保障和平，朝鲜和美国应签署和平协定，构筑新的和平保障机制。”
俄国总统批评西方改写二战历史
梅德韦杰夫公开谴责欧洲安全与合作组织7月份通过的一项决议。这一决议称，纳粹和斯大林主义都酿成种族灭绝和战争罪行。俄国说，前苏联是欧洲的解放者，数百万俄国人死于战争，纳粹德国是罪魁。前苏联卫星国波兰和波罗的海国家指出，苏联在战争初期与德国签署《苏德互不侵犯条约》，为波兰被瓜分、苏联占领立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚半个世纪铺平了道路。
日本众院大选各政党议席数确定
日本第45届众院选举在31日凌晨确定了全部480个议席。呼吁“政权更迭”的民主党获得了308议席，是选举前的115个议席的近3倍。由于民主党有意与社民党、国民新党联合执政，三党合计议席数达到318个，完全扭转了此前“扭曲国会”的局面。而原来的执政党自民党的议席数从选举前的300个减少到119个。
与自民党联合执政的公明党代表太田昭宏等八人全部落选。获得的议席数只有靠比例代表选赢得的21个议席，比原来减少了10个议席。日本共产党和社民党都分别保住了选举前的9个和7个议席。众人之党获得5个议席，比选举前增加了1个。国民新党减少一个议席，为3个议席。新党大地和选举前一样获得1个议席，新党日本获得了1个议席。
小选举区的300个议席的详细分配为民主党221议席、自民党64议席、社民党和国民新党各3议席、众人之党2议席、新党日本1议席、无党派6议席。日本全国11个区的比例代表选180个议席的具体分配为民主党87议席、自民党55议席、公明党21议席、共产党9议席、社民党4议席、众人之党3议席、新党大地1议席。
此次日本众院大选的投票率为69.28%，比上次的67.51%高出1.77个百分点。
“民主党娃娃兵”大量诞生 “小泉娃娃兵”纷纷落选
本届日本众院选举中当选的新议员为158人，比诞生大量“小泉娃娃兵”的2005年上届众院选举多57人，新议员数之多仅次于现行宪法下1949年众院选举的192人。按不同政党分，民主党此次共有143名“娃娃兵”当选，为各党之首，占到了所有新议员的90.5%。
其余各党中，自民党5人、公明、共产两党各1人，社民党3人。众人之党和无党派各2人，新党日本为1人。国民新党则颗粒无收。
在2005众院选举中第一次当选的自民党“小泉娃娃兵”83人中，在此次大选中参选的有77人，但最终只有10人再次当选。当时的首相小泉纯一郎在日本刮起旋风，“小泉娃娃兵”也借机纷纷当选。而此次众院大选攻防转换，选民们追求“政权更迭”，“小泉娃娃兵”受到了直接打击。
日本民主党赢得大选 政坛进入新时代
日本选民周日抛弃了领导这个国家50多年的执政党，选择了从未经受过考验的对手应对疲弱的经济和老龄化社会。
日本政府的历史性更迭可能推动日本政坛进入新的时代，主导日本战后繁荣年代的沉闷的大一统格局为更加对立的竞争性环境所代替。但这也带来了一个重要问题，即新上台者能否解决日本深层次的结构性问题，打消民众对未来的不安全感。
周日的选举过程给自民党的长期统治造成了重大打击，自民党的资深政治家纷纷被来自民主党的新手击败。这种攻守局面的变化正值日本处于关键时刻之际。由于去年秋季的金融危机引发经济严重滑坡，日本作为全球经济强国的地位正在迅速衰落，中国有望在今后一、两年内取代日本成为世界第二大经济体。许多日本人都对不断扩大的收入差距感到厌倦，并谴责近年来政策的不力。
为了改变这种局面，民主党提出了一个雄心勃勃的社会开支计划，其中包括每年3,300美元的子女补贴，以解决日本人口的不断减少和平均年龄上升的问题。它还建议重新评估与日本历史上关系最密切的盟国美国的关系，探索扩大地区联盟。
日本民主党虽然成功上台，但可能会缓慢地实施政策转变，尤其是在革除官僚主义和让美国部分军事设施撤出冲绳等微妙领域。日本民主党需要在其成员内部建立一致性，同时谨防过于激烈的变革令选民不安。
获胜后的日本民主党选择新内阁时将会受到密切关注。该党由众多不同派别的政治人士组成，既有以前的执政党的重量级人物，也有劳工活动家，这些人在加税和农业政策等重大问题上可能难以达成一致。
早些时候人们预计日本民主党会选择私营领域的专家来担任要职，但鸠山由纪夫不久前表示，他会将财政大臣和外相等重要职位交给资深议员。分析师们说，可能的候选人包括日本民主党干事长、前贸易官员冈田克也(Katsuya Okada)，他以支持财政赤字控制闻名；另一位候选人是藤井裕九(Hirohisa Fujii)，1993年自民党暂时失势时，他曾在历时很短的联合政府中任财政大臣。
9月中下旬，议院将举行特别会议，投票选举新首相，随后新首相将赴美参加9月22日的联合国大会以及9月24-25日在美国匹兹堡举行的20国集团(G20)领导人会议。
IMF总裁：美国主导世界经济不易改变
明年上半年，世界经济将以美国为中心复苏，逐渐扩散至其他国家。中国、韩国、印度等新兴国家经济呈现快速增长，在世界经济中所占的比重越来越大，但世界经济仍将由美国主导。施特劳斯-卡恩还说，目前尚未摆脱危机。即使美国等世界经济在明年上半年呈现增长趋势，2011年失业人数仍将持续增加。
经济学家对美通货膨胀前景意见不一
经济学家们预计2014年至2018年不包括食品和能源的核心通胀率平均为3%。他们担心，过度刺激的财政政策，中期内撤出定量宽松政策，可能会导致高通货膨胀。美联储的目标是将通胀率维持在1.5%-2%的区间内。
约有70%的人认为美国货币政策大体正确，这一比例高于去年同期的56%。大约四分之一的受访者表示，当前的货币政策太具刺激性了。56%的受访者预计，未来6个月美联储可能会维持利率稳定，44%的人认为美联储会加息。
“子承父业”当新官 中国“官二代”成媒体焦点
河南省固始县在2008年全县选拔正科级和县局级干部任用中，最后确定的12名乡长，基本都是当地官员和房地产老板的子弟。
沪指重挫6.7% 创年内最大单日跌幅
上证综合指数可能在2500点水平才会得到支撑；投资者不愿在当前水平逢低吸纳，因多数共同基金似乎还没有止损，这是市场面临的不确定因素。
鉴于有更多公司即将进行首次公开募股(IPO)交易，投资者担心又一波的股票供应将对中国股市构成打击。
将从周一开始进行A股IPO的巡回推介，申购时间是9月8日至9月9日。该公司已经表示，预计将通过A股IPO至少筹资人民币168.5亿元（合24.7亿美元）。
一方面，新股供应正涌向市场，另一方面，鉴于8月份新增贷款可能已进一步下滑，新股发行未能得到良好的流动性支撑。
中国8月份新增人民币贷款可能从6月份的人民币1.53万亿元和7月份的人民币3,560亿元降至人民币3,000亿元以下；考虑到近期还有报导称8月份新增贷款可能回升至人民币逾5,000亿元，这一消息可能令市场失望。
市场预料到信贷会有所收紧，因上半年大规模的信贷增长足以支撑中国经济8%的增幅，但新增贷款降速似乎太快了。
交投活跃的个股中，招商银行(China Merchants Bank)领跌，该公司此前公布，上半年净利润下降38%，降幅超过预期。该行还表示，拟将配股规模较原计划上调22%。该股收盘跌6.3%，至人民币13.63元。
炼油商中国石化(China Petroleum & Chemical)跌停，报人民币11.13元，受中国上周未如期上调成品油价格所引发的失望情绪拖累。中国石油(PetroChina)跌6.7%，至人民币12.80元。
尽管近期全球油价上涨，但国家发改委上周四要求地方物价部门在10月初的建国60周年大庆之前保持关键商品价格的稳定。
消息人士称股市维稳政策陆续出台 并不针对国庆
“这些措施可能包括减少央行发行的旨在吸收过度流动性的短期票据,加速批准新股发行、新基金等。”
摩根士丹利王庆:市场流动性不会明显收缩
摩根士丹利大中华区首席经济学家王庆29日表示，“当前只是宽松货币政策结束，并不是紧缩政策的开始”，下半年新增贷款下滑属正常现象，不必对流动性过分担忧。在出口没有明显好转之前，中国不会出现全面通胀，至少到明年年中才可能出现加息。即使政策收紧，股市也不会必然走弱。
在当日召开的英大证券新财富投资论坛上，王庆指出，美联储至少需要到明年年中才可能加息，中国亦不会出台独立于外部经济环境的政策。当前政策主动性的流动性创造开始衰退，而市场被动性的流动性创造正逐渐兴起，未来一两年大额贸易顺差可能再次出现，人民币对美元升值预期再起，进而形成热钱涌入，中国或将出现类似2005年至2007年的形势。
对于欧美经济复苏和中国出口，王庆表示，欧美消费者或只是周期性去杠杆化，当前储蓄率快速上升只是在金融危机情况下，信用环境恶化和风险厌恶而导致的被动性储蓄，欧美储蓄率未来或将有所下降，维持在2%至3%水平波动。
与王庆预期一致，野村证券中国区首席经济学家孙明春表示，当前信贷微调主要是商业银行完成信贷任务后自发性的收紧，上半年部分票据融资可能在下半年转成贷款，同时明年一季度新增信贷可能再次出现井喷。孙明春指出，为保证约23万亿元在建项目投资的可持续性，明后年的货币供应量不会收缩，全年都将维持10万亿元左右的新增信贷。
孙明春还表示，近期的股市下跌与2007年10-11月份的情况存在根本性差异，两者的经济特性几乎截然相反。目前中国经济强势反转，存货调整周期结束，预期明年一季度GDP增速有望达到11%以上，二季度或将出现经济过热现象。在未来几个月乃至几个季度里，中国的资产价格将继续上涨，改善的经济基本面、低通胀、宽松的流动性状况、公司盈利前景好转都将为资产价格上涨创造环境。
英大证券研究所所长李大霄分析指出，宏观和微观层面的数据均显示经济出现复苏迹象，美国银行间同业拆借利率处于历史低位，流动性迅速恢复，香港基础货币总结余急剧增加，未来资产价格有望走高。从历史平均水平看，目前A股市场的估值水平已进入合理区间，当前市场重心总体向上的概率较大，但会反复震荡。如果未来经济复苏进程缓慢，上市公司业绩增长低于预期，将使A股的估值承压。下半年强周期性行业存在较多投资机会，H股、B股投资机会显现。
楼继伟：今年回报料可观 中投将加大投资
Panel in Iran Will Oversee Investigations Into Unrest
Conservative rivals of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran have continued to challenge his drive to consolidate power, appointing a committee to supervise investigations into the unrest that swept the nation after he claimed a landslide victory in the disputed presidential election in June, political analysts said.
On Saturday, a day before Mr. Ahmadinejad stepped before a hostile Parliament to defend his 21 nominees for the cabinet , the chief of the judiciary, Sadeq Larijani, announced the appointment of a panel to oversee investigations by allies of the president into the postelection unrest.
Mr. Larijani, a rival of the president, said the committee was told “to ensure that the defendants’ rights are reserved and that they are treated properly,” according to the semi-official Fars news service, offering a not-too-subtle vote of no confidence in the president’s handling of events.
The announcement reflected another step by the president’s more pragmatic hard-line rivals to blunt his call for the arrest of reformist leaders and his demand that those on trial face the most extreme penalties. It also seemed to be part of a strategy by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to repair his own tarnished credibility with the clerical elite and the loss of his standing as a fair arbiter with the population, political analysts said.
Myanmar Army Routs Ethnic Chinese Rebels in the North
The Myanmar military has overwhelmed rebels from an ethnic Chinese minority in the northern reaches of the country, the junta’s second victory over armed opponents in three months.
The routing over the weekend of the forces of the small, Chinese-speaking Kokang ethnic group gives Myanmar’s governing generals momentum in their campaign to quell armed opposition before elections and the adoption of a new Constitution next year.
Several well-armed groups, notably the Wa and Kachin, still stand in the way of the junta’s goal of complete control over the country. But a recently announced agreement of solidarity among the rebel groups, which had the potential to slow the central government’s advance against the Kokang, may be fraying.
The Myanmar government’s strategy, analysts say, appears to be to challenge the groups one by one and to try to capitalize on the many factions within each group.
In June, the military defeated ethnic Karen insurgents along the border with Thailand, aided by a local militia of Karen Buddhists who led an attack on forces that were largely made up of Karen Christians.
To defeat the Kokang, the small ethnic group in the north, the junta allied itself with a defector and chased out troops loyal to the Kokang’s chairman, Peng Jiasheng.
A force of 2,000 Wa soldiers had initially come to the assistance of the Kokang, but they retreated Friday, according to Aung Kyaw Zaw, a former rebel based on the Chinese side of the border. This appeared to undercut a mutual-assistance agreement that the rebel groups reached several weeks ago.
Late on Sunday, Myanmar’s official media broke their silence on the fighting with a television broadcast announcing that clashes had ended and providing what appeared to be a preliminary death toll of 26 members of government security forces and 8 Kokang militiamen, The Associated Press reported. “The region has now regained peace,” the official announcement said.
Chinese state media said that two Chinese citizens had also been killed in the fighting.
News services reported from southern China that Kokang forces were continuing to flee across the border into China on Sunday on the heels of what United Nations and Chinese officials estimated were as many as 30,000 civilian refugees. Nearly half the estimated 1,500 members of the Kokang militia have crossed the border and handed their weapons to the Chinese authorities, according to Mr. Aung Kyaw Zaw.
The central government’s assaults on the Kokang, which began last week, have put other ethnic groups on alert, according to Brang Lai, a local official in the Kachin headquarters in Laiza, along the Chinese border.
“People are very concerned,” Mr. Brang Lai said in a telephone interview. On the Chinese side of Laiza, residents have put Chinese flags on their roofs in the hope that they will be able to avoid any additional fighting. Officers from the Myanmar military’s Northern Division were in Laiza over the weekend to call for calm, Mr. Brang Lai said.
Followers of Mr. Peng, the Kokang’s chairman, were spotted by reporters on the Chinese side of the border buying civilian clothes to replace their militia uniforms.
“There was no way we would win,” Ri Chenchuan, a Kokang rebel, said as he shopped for new clothes, The A.P. reported.
The Myanmar government has signed more than a dozen cease-fire agreements with ethnic groups over the past two decades, but the fighting with the Kokang raised questions about the military’s intentions.
Aung Din, executive director of the United States Campaign for Burma, an advocacy group that opposes the junta, said the generals apparently had adopted a more aggressive posture, partly influenced by the Sri Lankan government’s military victory over Tamil rebels in May.
Sri Lanka’s president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, met with Myanmar’s generals in June in what was his first overseas trip after the defeat of the Tamil Tigers. The visit might have inspired Myanmar’s senior general, Than Shwe, who has spent much of his military career battling ethnic groups, Mr. Aung Din said.
“It was an encouragement to the regime to do away with the insurgency once and for all,” Mr. Aung Din said. “Their thinking has changed.”
The motives and strategies of Myanmar’s leaders have long been difficult to divine. General Than Shwe is a very secretive man and the state-run media are highly selective in their reporting. The report on Sunday evening was the first time they had mentioned the campaign against the Kokang.
The fighting appears to have strained Myanmar’s relations with China, especially since the Kokang are ethnically Chinese. The Chinese Foreign Ministry warned Myanmar on Friday to “properly handle domestic problems and maintain stability in the China-Myanmar border region.”
Analysts said that the Chinese government had asked Myanmar’s generals to refrain from initiating military campaigns before the celebration of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic on Oct. 1.
In that light, China could view Myanmar’s campaign as provocative, especially since China is a large investor in Myanmar and plays the role of the junta’s protective big brother in the United Nations and other international forums.
Mr. Aung Kyaw Zaw said he suspected that the Myanmar generals wanted to demonstrate their independence to Chinese leaders. Their message, he said, is that “if we want to fight along the border, we can fight.”
“This is a political game,” he added. |
