时事经纬
28-08-09
美国不再要求以色列停止定居点建设
美国一位官员说,以色列和巴勒斯坦可能会在没有全面冻结以色列定居点建设的情况下重新开始谈判。美国国务院发言人克劳利星期四对记者说,美国的主要目标是让以色列和巴勒斯坦重新回到谈判桌前,他们自己就将商讨和平协议的条款。
美国担忧阿总统竞选伙伴贩毒报导
美国国务院对阿富汗总统卡尔扎伊的副总统竞选伙伴之一涉足贩毒的报导表示担忧。纽约时报报导说,如果卡尔扎伊当选连任,前国防部长及军阀出身的法希姆可能面临美国的制裁。还说,如果卡尔扎伊赢得连任,而法希姆就任副总统,这将使美国和阿富汗关系复杂化。美国高级官员说,华盛顿方面的确对法希姆涉嫌贩毒的报导感到担忧,并且已经向阿富汗当局表达了这些忧虑。本月早些时候,美国对阿富汗流亡军阀杜斯塔姆的回国表示了“严重关切”。
美国特使霍尔布鲁克同卡尔扎伊“发生争吵”
布鲁克对于选举出现的重复投票以及舞弊问题表示关注,并且说进行第二轮选举可能增加选举的可信度。 霍尔布鲁克抱怨现任总统的选举团队和其他候选人使用舞弊和重复投票手段。 消息人士说,卡尔扎伊对上述指责作出愤怒反应,会谈时间不长就结束。
伊朗神职人员批评领导人行为反常
伊朗一位持不同政见的高级神职官员指责伊朗领导人采用“反常”方式处理选举后的动乱。蒙塔泽里说,伊朗领导人应该有勇气宣布,政府既不是共和政体也不是伊斯兰政体。没有人被允许表达观点或提出批评。
众院选举两天后举行 日反对党可能获三分二议席
日本众议院选举两天后就要掀开帷幕,最大反对党民主党目前气势如虹,最新民调显示,它在星期天的大选中将大跃进,可能赢得超过三分之二议席。 《朝日新闻》,昨天以自民党大败为主题,公布新一轮民意。其调查分析,将下野的自民党或只能保留100个议席。在众议院的480个议席中,民主党估计能赢得321到330个。此外,民主党的新人有六成被看好,将可能击败自民党元老。
朝鲜政府相关人士本月中旬秘密访美
4名朝鲜政府官员本月中旬秘密访问美国。
据了解,他们以朝美民间交流协会(KAPES)代表团的名义在民间交流层面上,从15开始进行了为期5天的访美日程。 这是朝鲜发射远程火箭和进行核试验后,奥巴马政府首次允许朝鲜人士访问美国。访美代表团包括朝美民间交流协会副会长崔日,和协会所属的高层官员和翻译人员。此外,朝鲜驻联合国代表部相关人士也参与了代表团的日程。 18日,代表团在洛杉矶同“Operation USA”等美国救助团体负责人举行会晤,并参观了“Operation USA”的粮食及药品仓库。因而,对朝粮食援助能否重启倍受关注。
云南妥善安置缅甸难民 难民营内气氛安静
据云南省政府证实,靠8月7日,缅甸军方以果敢枪械修理厂制造毒品为由,派出30名警察欲强搜该厂,随后缅军、果敢同盟军处于对峙状态,造成果敢居民恐慌。8日至12日,近万名果敢难民(包括中国人及缅甸边民)越过国境线奔入云南躲避。 据一个国际组织估计,当天“有数万人逃到与中国相邻的云南省境内”。
果敢在清朝以前属于中国,英国入侵后划入缅甸,后成为缅共控制区。果敢与缅甸政府谈判停火后,成为缅甸掸邦的第一特区,拥有军队并自治。
果敢地区使用人民币,手机是中国移动号码,连座机也是云南区号,果敢人说云南汉话,当地“果敢族”亦是缅甸的汉族。果敢近15万人的生活必需品全靠从中国进口,与中国唇齿相依、血脉相连。
在果敢做生意、打工的中国人多达数万,老街店铺90%以上由中国人投资。对峙事件吓走了大多数中国商人,果敢从未如此凋敝冷清。
果敢军与缅甸政府军已经停火20年。果敢军通过新成立的“缅甸和平和民主阵线联盟”发表声明称,缅甸政府军正在向他们施压,要求他们在2010年缅甸大选前,加入由政府控制的边境安全部队,以避免他们对大选造成影响。
中国要求美国减少对华海空侦查
中美两国军方星期三(8月26日)和星期四举行的海上安全特别会议上, 中国要求美国减少在中国沿海地区的海空侦查,以避免双方发生海上冲突。 中国一直坚持表示自己有权在专属经济区内限制外国军队的侦查活动。但是美国认为,根据国际条约,他们可以这样做。
宝钢将投资澳洲矿产商Aquila Resources
Aquila Resources Ltd.周五表示,已经与中国最大的钢铁企业宝钢集团有限公司(Baosteel Group Corp.)签署战略合作协议,以加快其铁矿石、煤炭和锰项目的开发。
宝钢集团将通过向Aquila投资至多2.856亿澳元获得这家澳大利亚矿业公司15%的股权。具体地,Aquila将以每股6.50澳元的价格向宝钢集团配售至多4,395万股股票,这将使宝钢集团成为Aquila的第二大股东。
该交易将标志著宝钢集团首次直接投资一家澳大利亚企业。宝钢集团曾在2007年与Fortescue Metals Group Ltd.就Glacier Valley铁矿石项目达成一项合资协议。
上述消息公布后,Aquila股价上涨近12%,至10个月高点7.32澳元,随后小幅回落。格林威治时间0425,该股涨8.2%,至7.09澳元。
宝钢集团表示,对Aquila资产的增长潜力抱有信心,并将利用自有资金收购Aquila的股权。
在眼下中澳外交关系紧张之际,该交易将是对澳大利亚外商投资审核委员会(Foreign Investment Review Board, 简称FIRB)的又一次考验。中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴国。
但分析师称,FIRB可能会批准这桩交易,因为其规模较小,而且之前一些规模类似的交易也都获得了FIRB的批准。他们表示,紧张的外交关系不会对跨境投资构成阻碍。
上述交易还有待获得中国监管机构的批准,这类海外投资交易通常都会得到政府方面的批准。
Aquila执行总裁坡利(Tony Poli)向道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)表示,公司下周将向FIRB提出申请,不会有任何延误。对于澳大利亚国库部长斯万(Wayne Swan)而言,这是他向中国发出积极信息的时机。
双方已经签署了谅解备忘录,允许宝钢集团对Aquila的主要开发项目进行直接投资。
Aquila发布公告称,宝钢集团将协助该公司为包括West Pilbara铁矿石战略项目在内的一系列项目从中国机构获取低成本融资。
据某知情人士称,这笔拟议中的交易引发了该项目新的问题,该项目由投资41亿澳元的澳大利亚优质铁矿石(API)出口合资公司负责运行管理,其中AMCI拥有其中50%的股权,Aquila持有余下的50%股权。6月份以来,AMCI已经开始出售其所持该项目的全部或部分股权,但到目前为止还未收到任何确定的收购意向,可能是因为Aquila对AMCI在该项目的股份有优先收购权。AMCI为私营公司Metals and Coal Industries Inc.旗下子公司。
坡利称,如果收购价格合适,公司将有意购入AMCI所持的股份。公司已经与AMCI进行了协商,但还尚未进入确定收购价格的阶段。
该知情人士称,这笔与宝钢集团拟议中的交易将使Aquila在对AMCI的股权收购交易中处于有利低位。
据坡利称,瑞士银行(UBS)将负责此次股权出售。记者未能及时联络到瑞士银行发言人对此置评。
West Pilbara铁矿石项目预计将在2010年前得出可行性研究报告,并于2013年前投入生产,该项目的铁矿石年产量将达到3,000万-4,000万吨。
除了West Pilbara铁矿石矿(Aquila持股40%)之外,上述项目还包括南非的Thabazimbi资产、在昆士兰州的三项煤矿权益(其中持有Eagle Downs项目50%的股权),以及在南非的Avontuur锰矿。
双方还同意致力于在上述项目投产后签订长期的矿石包销协议。
苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)分析师埃得尼(Warren Edney)称,上述交易对Aquila是积极的,这将赋予该公司加快项目开发的机会,同时还能从中国金融机构那里得到低成本融资。
他表示,下一步宝钢集团可能会寻求完全拥有这些项目。
在一份公告中,经纪人佩特森斯(Patersons)称,宝钢集团的加入预示著Aquila有可能实现资本密集型增长。
佩特森斯称,据他们的预期,Aquila的资本支出将转向Eagle Downs项目,Belvedere煤矿项目和West Pilbara铁矿石项目投入生产后,将在未来四年半内带来28.9亿澳元的收入。
宝钢集团副总经理戴志浩已被提名为Aquila董事。
中国股市收低 流动性担忧笼罩市场
中国股市周五收盘大幅走低,因担忧下半年贷款放缓将减弱对股票的需求,而且即将到来的股票融资将带来供给面压力。
基准的上证综合指数收盘下跌2.9%至2860.69点。深证综合指数下跌3.1%至974.29点。
上证综合指数本周累计下跌3.4%,目前较8月4日的年内高点3478.01点已经下跌17.7%。
上海证交所成交额从周四的人民币1,496亿元降至人民币1,375亿元(约合201亿美元)。
分析师们称,他们预计市场下周将维持盘整走势,而上证综合指数将在2700-3100点区间内波动。
Capital Financial Management的分析师Jacky Zhang表示,最近有大型公司宣布将发股融资,加上一系列中小型公司将上市,这将在中长期内令股市承压。
招商银行(China Merchants Bank)、浦发银行(Shanghai Pudong Development Bank)和万科A(China Vanke)近期相继表示计划发行新股筹资。中国银行(Bank of China)行长李礼辉也于周四表示,该行可能从股市筹资以改善自身资本状况。
分析师们称,市场担心下半年贷款发放规模将小于预期,这也令银行类股承压。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师林淑娥(Sherry Lin)在一份研究报告中称,如果贷款增幅的放缓速度果真高于预期,则有可能对股市造成更大的伤害。
中国银行收盘跌1.8%,至人民币3.90元;民生银行(China Minsheng Banking)跌5.2%,至人民币6.43元;浦发银行跌5.8%,至人民币19.0元。
钢铁生厂商类股大幅下挫,因中国政府本周就多个行业存在的产能过剩问题发出警告。国务院(State Council)周三表示,风力发电和多晶硅等部分先进行业以及钢铁、水泥、平板玻璃和煤炭化工等传统行业存在产能过剩和过度建设情况。
武钢股份(Wuhan Iron & Steel)跌6.4%,至人民币8.02元;宝钢股份(Baoshan Iron & Steel)跌3.8%,至人民币6.90元,甚至在其母公司宝钢集团(Baosteel Group)宣布将以至多2.856亿澳元收购澳大利亚矿业公司Aquila Resources 15%股权之后也未能止跌。
卫生部(Ministry of Health)于上周推出了新基本药物目录,该消息推动制药商类股在近期强劲上扬,但此类股今日遭遇获利回吐,纷纷大幅下挫。
康恩贝(Zhejiang Conba Pharmaceutical)收盘下跌8.5%,至人民币11.46元,该股自8月17日以来累计上涨56%;美罗药业(Merro Pharmaceutical)跌9.1%,至人民币8.15元,该股自8月17日以来累计上涨48%。
Iran’s Supreme Leader Softens Tone
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appears to have undercut President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s attempt to convict dozens of former government officials, journalists and academics of collaborating with the West to overthrow the government, saying a connection had not been proved.
Ayatollah Khamenei has alternated allegiances within the hard-line factions, nurturing tension between various arms of the state.
He appointed Sadeq Larijani, a member of the hard-line camp who is an adversary of the president, as head of the judiciary. He appointed a cleric, Kazem Sedighi, who is also a rival of the president, as a new leader of Friday Prayer. And on Thursday, there were more unconfirmed reports that Ayatollah Khamenei had fired the Tehran prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi, who was close to the president and was responsible for orchestrating the mass trials of those accused of plotting a so-called velvet revolution.
4% of Israeli Jews: Obama pro-Israel
The number of Israelis who see US President Barack Obama's policies as pro-Israel has fallen to four percent, according to a Smith Research poll taken this week on behalf of The Jerusalem Post.
Fifty-one percent of Jewish Israelis consider Obama's administration more pro-Palestinian than pro-Israel, according to the survey, while 35% consider it neutral and 10% declined to express an opinion. The poll of 500 people representing a statistical model of the Jewish Israeli population had a margin of error of 4.5%. The poll asked Jewish Israelis whether they would support freezing settlement construction for a year as part of an American-brokered deal. Fifty percent said no, 41% said yes and 9% did not express an opinion. The May poll found that Israelis' views of George W. Bush, were nearly the opposite. Some 88% of Israelis considered Bush's administration pro-Israel, 7% said he was neutral and just 2% labeled him pro-Palestinian.
Ahmadinejad urges punishment for unrest architects
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called for a severe punishment of the orchestrators of the post-election unrest that followed the presidential election.
In a pre-sermon speech to Friday prayers, President Ahmadinejad touched upon the events ensuing from the 10th presidential election.
Calling the post-election events 'painful', the president said that certain individuals deceived by the enemy's schemes did their best to undermine the high voter turnout in the election and to shake the foundations of the Islamic establishment.
The president said electoral fraud with a huge discrepancy was not possible in Iran. He called the June 12 election 'the healthiest' election against which no single evidence could be found to undermine the results.
President Ahmadinejad then called on officials to bring to justice the architects of the post-election unrest.
"I call upon security and judicial officials to decisively and mercilessly act with those who committed inhumane acts in the guise of the friends [of the establishment] since they inflicted damage on people and tarnished the image of the establishment, security and police forces."
He then called on authorities to administer justice and firmly deal with those who "orchestrated and provoked" the unrest and instead treat those deceived in the course of the election with 'Islamic compassion'.
President Ahmadinejad also lashed out at Western countries for interfering in the internal affairs of the country both before and after the election.
They tried to undermine the 'dignity and pride' of the Iranian nation and sought in vain to mar the image of the Islamic establishment, President Ahmadinejad said, but reiterated that the Islamic Revolution has instead gained 'more strength' following the election developments.
The president then advised Western countries to compensate for their 'blunders'.
After the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the June 12 presidential election, the defeated candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi disputed the veracity of the votes and rejected the result as 'fraudulent'.
Tehran and some other Iranian cities became the scene of rallies with some of them turning violent and resulting in the death of at least 30 people. A large number of people including well-known opposition figures, political activists and journalists were also arrested following the election.
Tehran accuses Western countries for instigating the post-election protests in Iran, arguing that the widespread post-vote unrest was a foreign-led attempt aimed at staging a 'velvet coup' to overthrow the Islamic establishment.
The opposition leaders deny having any links to foreign countries, adding that the outcry has been prompted by national doubts over the official result of the vote.
US denies giving up missile shield plan
Washington has denied reports that it was abandoning a plan to deploy defense missile shield bases in Poland and the Czech Republic.
"I would call that report inaccurate," the US State Department Spokesman P.J. Crowley told reporters. "Our review of our missile defense strategy is ongoing and has not reached completion yet."
Leading Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza, citing officials and lobbyists in Washington, said the United States was scrapping plans to build the bases in Poland and the Czech Republic and was looking at alternatives including Israel and Turkey.
Former US president George W. Bush's administration devised the missile defense plan, saying that it was a precautionary measure against attacks from the so called 'rogue states' like Iran and North Korea.
Russia responded furiously to what it saw as an encroachment in the former Soviet bloc and threatened to deploy its own missile system in Kaliningrad, an exclave near Poland.
Bush's successor President Barack Obama, who has tried to "reset" relations with Russia, launched a review of the controversial system after taking office earlier this year.
Fleeing Battle, Myanmar Refugees Head to China
After two decades of relative calm in northern Myanmar, fighting has broken out between the central government and upland ethnic groups, sending tens of thousands of refugees fleeing into China and threatening a fragile patchwork of cease-fire agreements that ended decades of civil war.
The fighting began between soldiers from the Kokang minority group and government troops, but it broadened to involve at least two more groups, the Wa and the Kachin. All three groups oppose the central government.
Civil war raged through much of the country after it gained its independence from Britain in 1948, and Myanmar still does not control all of its borders. Aside from the groups fighting now along the Chinese border, there are Karen militants who occupy some camps north of the border with Thailand.
The junta that has long ruled Myanmar has jailed its opponents, crushed pro-democracy uprisings and clung to power through force, justifying its actions, in part, as necessary to counter the destabilization threatened by rebel movements. Now, it is pressuring more than a dozen armed ethnic groups to give up their weapons and become border guards, an effort that appears to have galvanized the groups’ opposition.
Fighting between government forces and Kokang fighters took place Thursday morning in the village of Yan Lon Kyaik, only a few hundred yards from the border with China, Mr. Aung Kyaw Zaw said. It resumed Thursday evening in the village of Chin Swe Haw, where three Kokang fighters and several dozen government troopers were killed, he added. On Friday, there were at least three clashes, according to the U.S. Campaign for Burma.
There was no way to independently confirm the accounts of the fighting, which occurred in a remote area along the border. Myanmar’s military moved troops into the area earlier this month, saying they would crack down on illegal drug business, the U.S. Campaign for Burma said.
If the military continues its advance, Mr. Aung Kyaw Zaw said, “there will be so much bloodshed.” The central government, he said, has sent reinforcements to the area.
Various ethnic groups control large pockets of territory in the northern borderland areas and risk losing their control over the lucrative trade in timber, jade, gemstones and, in some cases, heroin and methamphetamine.
The Kokang are allied with the most heavily armed group along the Chinese border, the United Wa State Army, which has about 20,000 soldiers and is known to have large-caliber weapons, including field artillery and antitank missiles.
Farther north, the Kachin Independence Army has about 4,000 men under arms.
“This Kokang fighting is not only a Kokang problem — it has become a wider issue,” said Brang Lai, a local official in Laiza, a town on the Chinese border controlled by the Kachin Independence Organization.
“The border guard issue is unacceptable for all the armed groups,” he said. “All the armed groups have a common agreement to help each other.”
The fighting comes as Myanmar’s military government prepares to adopt a new and disputed constitution next year.
“They want to show military victory before the elections next year,” said Win Min, a lecturer in contemporary Burmese politics at Payap University in Chiang Mai, Thailand. In early June, the government launched a successful offensive against ethnic Karen insurgents along the border with Thailand.
The elections and new constitution would nominally return Myanmar to civilian government after four and a half decades of military rule. The junta is proposing a unitary state, but the ethnic groups are loath to give up their hard-won autonomy, and they fear domination by the majority Burman ethnic group, most of whom are Buddhist and today hold power in Myanmar’s military junta.
“My sense is that the fighting will continue and could spread to other areas,” said Aung Din, the executive director of the U.S. Campaign for Burma.
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