时事经纬
22-08-09
伊朗国防部长人选被国际警察组织通缉
被提名担任伊朗下任国防部长的人选 瓦希迪因被指参与了1994年阿根廷犹太人中心爆炸案，正受到国际警察组织通缉。阿根廷一直要求引渡这名伊朗官员，他曾经是伊朗革命卫队成员，后来一直担任国防部副部长。1994年在布宜诺斯艾利斯犹太人文化中心发生的爆炸造成85人死亡，几百人受伤。
北韩代表要求会见韩国总统
一名北韩代表要求会见韩国总统李明博。这位北韩代表说，他们带来了北韩领导人金正日的信息。北韩代表的请求在星期六转达给了韩国统一部长官玄仁泽。
美军驻扎哥伦比亚引起拉美担忧
巴西总统卢拉呼吁美国总统奥巴马同拉美领导人会面，讨论目前受到拉美国家广泛关注的，在哥伦比亚部署美国军队的问题。卢拉在电话中对奥巴马总统说，他希望从美国那里得到正式的法律保证，即美军在哥伦比亚的职能仅限于打击毒品走私和恐怖分子。美国和哥伦比亚即将签署协议，将允许更多美军进入哥伦比亚基地。
韩运载火箭“罗老号”定于8月25日发射
韩国首枚运载火箭“罗老号”将于8月25日重启发射倒计时。韩国教育科技部第二次官金重贤21日表示：“造成19日发射中断的软件问题已经得到解决。经发射状况管理委员会研究，决定25日发射‘罗老号’。”
中国经济增长第三季度可能继续加速
中国第三季度国内生产总值GDP同比可能上升8.5%，高于第二季度GDP7.9%。彭博新闻社说，政府推出总额4万亿元人民币的经济刺激计划，信贷空前增长和出口需求的改善，可能帮助中国经济今年以超过8%的速度增长。花旗集团驻北京经济学家Ken Peng说：“外部条件的改善正在加快，国内投资和资本流动性继续强劲，经济增长近期会加速，超过官方的目标。”美国信用评级机构中国经济专家Direndra Singh说，中国经济增长的主要驱动力是政府各种刺激措施拉动了内需，但是否能持久值得怀疑。“汽车销售、住房销售和耐用品销售，这些指标都显示消费者愿意花钱，但是否能持续？他们如果没有政府补贴，是否还能继续花钱？我有我的疑问。”
中国国家信息中心表示，银行信贷将在未来数月恢复正常，下半年将坚持调控性的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。中国证券报报导，自7月信贷规模缩减至3560亿元后，8月新一轮借贷将反弹回5000亿元。国家信息中心解释，继续坚持适度宽松货币政策的原因之一，任何突然性的信贷收缩将可能使许多国家刺激项目速度放缓，并导致新一轮的坏账。此外，中国消费价格指数(CPI)连续数月下跌，反映存在轻度的通缩。该中心预测，本季度消费者物价指数CPI同比下跌1.3%，批发物价指数PPI同比下跌7.9%。
国家信息中心说，中国经济已经回暖，但由于出口减少，增长速度放缓，预测第三季度出口同比下滑20%，进口同比下跌12.7%，但资本投资仍然是推动中国经济快速发展的主要动力，预测第三季度城市固定资产投资有可能上升32%。国家信息中心同时警告，国内投资的增加，加剧了很多根深蒂固的问题，包括生产过量的问题，钢铁和水泥生产就严重过量，“这对中国未来工业重新组合与升级非常不利”。中心指出，未来房地产投资有可能取代政府开支，成为经济增长的下一个关键驱动力。
A股大跌提供良机 国际机构建议超配中国股票
截至19日的一周中，全球新兴市场股票基金都出现资金大量净流出的局面，而中国股票基金也遭遇了自2008年第一季度以来表现最差的一周。 8月份的第二周，新兴市场股票基金就已出现资金流入速度明显放缓的情况，而投资中国市场的基金则罕见出现资金流出。在截至8月12日当周，追踪中国股票的基金有4.45亿美元资金流出，此前一周则有少量资金流入。
在过去两周的一轮暴跌之后，瑞银本周发表报告称，中国股市可能会在未来30天内进一步回调，但这一波下跌给可能持续到2010年的牛市提供了一个更好的买入机会。 摩根士丹利的分析团队本周四发表报告称，牛市见顶的时间通常是在紧缩过程中期，而不是在宽松周期结束时。针对中国市场，该行建议投资人抓住深度回调的机会买进。 美国银行旗下的美林证券则认为，中国股市在大跌后有望反弹，因企业盈利有望超出预期，且决策者将维持信贷政策不变。美林的策略师表示，目前中国股市还没有看到拐点。
评级机构标准普尔周四则称，中国股市最近的回调对本地市场来说是一个积极信号，有助于为未来进一步上涨奠定基础，应该不会影响到亚洲股市整体良好的中期前景。标准普尔预计上证指数年底将收于3300点，2010年底目标看3800点。该公司还表示，如果未来几周全球经济前景及公司业绩改善，不排除会上调对中国股市的预期。
摩根士丹利:A股12个月内超4000点
摩根士丹利表示，中国作为世界第三大经济体，其经济正在复苏，中国股市可能还会上升，在未来12个月内上证综指将会超过4000点。
中国仍轻度通缩 货币政策不需改变 房地产将成为下一步投资接棒者
油价追随股市升势涨至10个月高位
美国7月份成屋销量上升7.2%
美国7月份成屋销量增至近两年以来的最高水平，因房屋价格下降以及税收优惠措施继续吸引房屋购买者。在7月份成屋销量中，止赎房产销售和短售大约占31%。成屋销售价格中值为178,400美元，较2008年7月份下跌15.1%。7月底待售成屋存量上升7.3%，库存空置指标为9.4个月，6月份为9.4个月。
伯南克讲话提振全球复苏预期
渣打:中国可能仍在继续增持美元资产
渣打银行研究部21日发布研究报告表示，尽管官方数据显示6月份中国购入270亿美元美国国债和票据、抛售520亿美元美国国债，但如果对中国通过伦敦的净购买量进行修正，中国可能仍在继续增持美元资产。就中国持有的美国国债而言，预计中国目前的持有规模约为9700亿美元。
公开数据显示，6月份中国购入了266亿美元长期美国国债，但同时6月份中国净抛售短期美国国债517.5亿美元。这样中国共减持251.2亿美元美国国债，这可能是自2000年3月美国财政部国际资本流动数据系统启用以来中国减持美国国债的单月之最。
渣打研究报告则认为，上述数据低估了中国对美国国债的持有规模，部分原因是中国可以通过中介间接购买美国国债，其中主要是通过位于伦敦的经纪商，而这部分购买量则在上述数据系统中归入了英国账下。
渣打研究报告表示，如果算入中国可能通过伦敦购买的美国国债的数量，预计中国所持包括机构债、公司债、以及股票等在内的美国证券总量仍在1.6万亿美元左右。就中国持有的美国国债而言，预计目前的持有规模约为9700亿美元。
该报告进一步表示，中国可能仍在继续增持美国国债。中国外汇储备仅6月份就增加了500亿美元，因此中国政府仍需要为每月新增外汇储备寻找投资出路。迄今为止，中国政府可能尚未发现比美国市场更加理想的投资场所。
美式资本主义已失败 诺奖得主吁建全球储备体系
Intimidation and Fraud Observed in Afghan Election
Turnout by female voters in Afghanistan’s presidential election on Thursday was notably low, and women were disproportionately affected by the violence and intimidation, a number of election observer organizations said Saturday.
Observers also noted widespread reports of problems with the election, including evidence of a lack of impartiality among some local election staffers, proxy voting, underage voting and stuffing of ballot boxes, as well as intimidation by the Taliban and also by some powerful candidates, in particular local candidates running for provincial council seats. But election officials said all the reports needed to be investigated, and that it was too early to draw broad conclusions about the overall validity of the vote.
Taliban 'chop off' Afghan voters fingers
Taliban insurgents have reportedly sliced off fingers of some voters in the troubled southern provinces of Afghanistan for casting their ballots on the polling day.
In a news conference in Kabul, observers of the Free and Fair Election Foundation (FEFA) of Afghanistan said that they had witnessed the "illegal and brutal punishments" in southern provinces where Taliban have long thrived.
"Our observers saw two voters whose fingers, with the ink, was cut off in Kandahar. This was on Election Day. This was in the afternoon," said Nader Nadery, the chairman of the group.
The insurgents had warned they would slit throats and chop off fingers of anyone who voted in Thursday's presidential and provincial councils' election.
The fingers of Afghan voters were dipped into a bottle of indelible ink; a measure that prevented them from voting multiple times.
Sources said militants made good on pre-election threats by punishing voters in the violence-wracked Kandahar and Helmand provinces.
The independent sources also fear the turnout may have been as low as 10 percent and up to 25-30 percent in some southern and eastern provinces due to Taliban intimidation.
Iran uncovers 'Zionist plot' against defense nominee
Iran says the international reaction to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nominee for defense minister is a “Zionist plot” to undermine the new Iranian administration.
“[Ahmad] Vahidi was a deputy defense minister and this is a very senior political position,” Ahmadinejad's press adviser, Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, told AFP. "Therefore it seems that this is a new trick being planned and is basically a Zionist plot."
His comments came after Argentina expressed outrage Friday over the defense minister-designate claiming that he is wanted in connection with the bombing of the Argentine Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA) Jewish Community Center, which left 85 dead and wounded more than 300 others.
Ahmadinejad's 'tapping' Ahmad Vahidi for the post is "an affront to Argentine justice and the victims of the terrorist attack", the Argentine Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Buenos Aires has formally accused Iran of carrying out the attack. Tehran strongly denies any involvement in the bombing.
Vahidi along with six other Iranian officials have been on Interpol's list since 2007 in connection with the bombing.
US officials reacted with concern to Vahidi's nomination as Iran's defense minister.
"If this report is true and if this man is confirmed as a cabinet minister and is wanted by Interpol for his involvement in a terrorist act, of course this would be disturbing," State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly said.
However, Javanfekr dismissed the allegations, asking, “How come they have never brought this up in the past?"
Argentina has the largest Jewish community in the Americas outside the United States.
Iranian minister wanted over AMIA attack
In Iraq, security forces have alleged links to terrorists
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has accused security forces of collaboration with terrorist groups in recent bombings which killed over 90 people in Baghdad.
"There was collaboration between security forces and the terrorist group to facilitate the passing of this truck through such a sensitive area," AFP quoted him as saying on Saturday.
Zebari, whose office lost 32 staff in two massive truck bombings that also targeted the finance ministry on Wednesday, said "How could this truck pass unless there is collaboration?"
Wednesday's bombings came only minutes apart and killed at least 95 people and wounded about 600 in Baghdad.
Zebari said Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had ordered the arrest of 11 senior security officers on Thursday so they could be questioned on how a four-ton truck had entered an area where even two-ton vehicles are barred.
"These people should be held accountable if there is such a penetration," he added.
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