时事经纬
09-06-09
安理会或放弃将临检义务化写入对朝决议
在联合国安理会对朝决议草案磋商中，五大常任理事国和日韩两国正在就放弃写入
中国所反对的朝鲜船只临检义务化进行最后的意见调整。据悉，最终的表述可能是
“请求”各国进行临检。七国计划在获得本国政府最后批准后于9日达成最终协议。
安理会可能在10日通过这一决议。据外交人士称，对于各国常驻联合国代表汇总的
修正后的决议草案，中国认为其中规定在各国领海内必须进行临检的条款“可能引
发武力冲突”，要求削弱这一表述。据悉，此前一直主张临检义务化的美国也对中
国的意见表示理解。
北韩发出新警告
美加州州长表示将帮助2名女记者获释
美国加利福尼亚州州长阿诺德 施瓦辛格8日就被朝鲜判刑的两名女记者，发表声明，表示将会力助获释。他表示：“旧金山市‘潮流电视台’的记者尤娜 李和劳拉 凌，是从事民主主义和自由的核心新闻人，妻子和我听到她们被判刑的消息后，非常难过。”“我非常关注两名美国女记者的情况，并为她们祈祷。”“加利福尼亚州将会不惜一切努力，帮助2名记者获释。”
美媒称韩国要求美国推迟特使计划
美国副国务卿斯坦伯格一行访问韩国时，曾向韩方告知将会派遣前副总统阿尔 戈尔，访问朝鲜。对此，韩国方面提及韩国人刘某在开城工业园区遭到扣押的问题，并要求美方推迟特使计划。消息人士称，如果朝美就美国女记者问题取得进展，韩国政府担忧，毫无音讯的刘某问题，将会对韩国舆论造成巨大影响。报道称，美国政府原计划在朝鲜对两名美国女记者作出判决后，立即发表特使计划，但随著审判推迟，上述计划也被暂时保留。
巴基斯坦部落成员转而反抗塔利班
巴基斯坦和美国高级官员一再说，在巴基斯坦，公众对打击巴基斯坦境内塔利班分
子的情绪有了重大的转变。几百个巴基斯坦武装部落成员攻击在西北边远地区的塔
利班据点。一个拥挤的清真寺上星期遭到自杀式袭击，打死了几十个人，其中包括
儿童。人们对袭击感到震惊，一天后，这种情绪变为愤怒。
由至少400个武装的部落成员组成了平民的军队，通常叫做“虔诚军” ，他们在一
些村庄里开始攻击塔利班武装分子。 报导说，大概有7到13名塔利班分子被杀，还
有他们的几处藏身地被摧毁。伊斯兰堡战略研究所主任法扎勒.乌尔.拉赫曼说，上
迪尔区出现平民起义是公众反塔利班情绪日益增长的最新证据。
拉赫曼说，像上迪尔地区成立地方“虔诚军”的活动是受到巴基斯坦官员鼓励的，
因为他们认识到，单凭安全部队是根本无法在整个巴基斯坦阻止激进分子的袭击。
“让当地人民有能力建立他们自己的防卫机制，以及他们自己的防卫系统。这种当
地安全事务管理将会非常有帮助。”
报告：中国军费开支居世界第二
根据该机构最新发表对国际军费开支的年度报告中的统计，世界各国2008年的军费
开支共达1.46万亿美元。这比2007年水平高4%，比10年前的水平则提高了45%。
美国仍是世界军费开支最大的国家，2008年军费开支比前一年增加10%，达到6070亿美元，差不多占全球总数的一半。法国紧随中国之后，名列第三位；去年排名第二的英国名列第四；俄罗斯从去年的
第七位上升到了第五位。
根据和平研究院的统计，美国军费开支在美国前总统布什任内不断增加，增长率高
达71%，“显然是造成美国财政赤字升高的因素之一”。
报告还估计了目前世界上核武器的数目，认为目前全球约有8400枚可使用的核弹头，其中约2000枚处于高度戒备状态，随时可以发射。 可使用核弹头数目比一年前少了800枚，报告说这主要是由于美国和俄罗斯分别削减了核武数目。国际上储存中以及将被拆毁的核弹头还有2.33万枚，它们分别属于美国、俄罗斯、中国、英国、法国、印度、巴基斯坦和以色列。
美国国防部证实向日本推荐F-35为主力战机
美国国防部发言人莫雷尔在8日的记者会上证实，美国国防部长盖茨推荐日本将F-35作为其下一代主力战机。这是美国政府官员首次公开表示向日方推荐F-35。尽管日本防卫相滨田靖一及航空自卫队都希望获得性能更强的F-22，但这一愿望落空的可能性正变得越来越大。由于造价昂贵，F-22可能面临停产。
古巴官方发表声明正式拒绝重返美洲国家组织
古巴官方当地时间8日发表声明，正式拒绝重返美洲国家组织。声明说，美洲国家组织长期以来在美国的控制下，并执行敌视古巴的政策。因此古巴不会重新加入该组织。本月初举行的第39届美洲国家组织大会在全体会议上通过决议，同意废除该组织于1962年通过的驱逐古巴的决议。
法报：三大危机困扰奥巴马
地中海东岸危机：巴以冲突+黎巴嫩-叙利亚；海湾地区危机：伊朗-阿拉伯之争包括逊尼派-什叶派之争；阿富汗-巴基斯坦地区危机：塔利班正在威胁著北约驻阿部队的安全及巴基斯坦的国家团结。
地中海东岸危机的特点是以色列和巴勒斯坦双双陷入困境。内塔尼亚胡政府拒不接受两个国家并存的解决方案，而且拒绝停止扩建犹太人定居点。巴勒斯坦人则分裂
为法塔赫和哈马斯两派。
伊拉克问题的解决和美军撤离是海湾危机链条的核心。用伊朗重新加入地区安全体系来换取它重新参与国际经济。实现这样的前景必须进行激烈的谈判，还会遇到阿拉伯国家的反对。半岛各国、开罗、安曼都纷纷对什叶派和伊朗的威胁发出警告。伊朗成为核国家的前景令它们和以色列一样感到担心。
奥巴马面临的挑战是彻底铲除塔利班及“基地”组织网络，缓和阿富汗-巴基斯坦地区的危机，以便腾出手去全力解决海湾和地中海东岸地区的问题。美国和北约裹足阿富汗-巴基斯坦地区，只能削弱他们在另外两大危机链条上的谈判和行动能力。伊朗、以色列和巴勒斯坦将不那么容易向一个实力削弱的对手让步。在中东地区三大危机链纵横交错之下，斯瓦特山谷的战争结果对约旦河西岸停建犹太定居点或伊朗制造核离心装置产生了反常的影响。
中国大规模提高出口退税引发担忧
中国政府宣布，为力保出口稳定，决定再度大规模提高出口退税。美国的贸易专家
认为，虽然中国此举并未违反世界贸易组织有关规定，但是却与它在G-20峰会上的
承诺相悖；同时，这样的举动也会促使贸易伙伴国采取相应的保护主义措施。
长期带动中国经济快速增长的对外出口在金融危机导致国际需求骤降后受到严重打击。美国经济智囊机构彼得森国际经济研究所的贸易专家加里.赫夫鲍尔说：“出口产业受到伤害，政府无疑受到来自这些产业的压力。根据世贸组织的条款，这样的退税是完全合法的。虽然中国在两年前取消了退税，不过在销售不济的时候再恢复退税。这就是中国政府的意图。对此我可以理解。”
但是赫夫鲍尔说，尽管中国大规模提高出口退税率看起来无懈可击，但是却与它在
此前20国集团会议上表达的精神相悖。“这是合法的。但是考虑到当前的状况，中
国享有贸易顺差，而美国和其他国家则处于逆差状态。这显得不合时宜，同时也和
G20会议今年4月发表的宣言不一致。”
赫夫鲍尔指出，当下的危机引发各国间形式不同的贸易保护主义措施。他说，美中
两国钢铁商近期相继提出的反倾销申诉就是各自采取的保护自身产业的行为。赫夫
鲍尔说，由于美国没有增值税，因此不会采用类似的退税手段刺激出口，但是可能
采取对进口产品增税的方式保护本国产业。“美国方面，国会出现各种提案。这些
提案的主要意图在于对从中国进口的产品施加反补贴税或反倾销税等。”
IATA预计亚洲航空业亏损严重
在最新的报告中，国际航空运输协会预计全球航空业亏损将达到90亿美元，其中，
亚太地区的亏损占全球总亏损额的三分之一。随著印度和中国市场出口主导型需求的下滑，亚太地区航空公司的损失预计会超过30亿美元。2008年，亚太地区航空公司损失了近40亿美元。因为全球经济低迷和全球出口市场紧缩，印度和中国的航
空公司都报告说亏损严重。
“两拓”联合涉嫌垄断 国际钢协呼吁严审
In Lebanese Vote, Hopeful Signs for U.S.
There were many domestic reasons voters handed an American-backed coalition a victory in Lebanese parliamentary elections on Sunday, for the first time in a long time, being aligned with the United States did not lead to defeat in the Middle East-- political analysts attribute it in part to President Obama’s campaign of outreach to the Arab and Muslim world wiith Mr. Obama’s speech on relations with Muslims still fresh in Lebanese minds.
Since Lebanon has always been a critical testing ground, that could mark a possibly significant shift in regional dynamics with another major election, in Iran, on Friday. Washington is now proposing talking to Hezbollah’s patrons, Iran and Syria, rather than confronting them — a move that undermines the group’s attempt to demonize the United States. The United States is also no longer pressing its allies in the Lebanese government to unilaterally disarm Hezbollah, which, given the party’s considerable remaining clout, could have provoked a crisis.
“Lebanon is a telling case,” said Osama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies here. “It is no longer relevant for the extremists to use the anti-American card. It does look like the U.S. is moving on to something new.”
In fact, some analysts said that it was possible that Lebanon’s election could be a harbinger of Friday’s presidential race in Iran, where a hard-line anti-American president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, may be losing ground to his main moderate challenger, Mir Hussein Moussavi.
While President Ahmadinejad has grown unpopular for many reasons, including his troubled stewardship of the economy, political analysts said that President Obama had blunted the appeal of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s confrontation with the West.
The results in Lebanon may also make it more difficult for Israel to capitalize on fears of Hezbollah dominance and shift the conversation away from the peace process with the Palestinians — a tactic that many analysts here attributed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Analysis: Lebanon election results offer some relief, but no major changes
Israel defense cost highest per capita
Israel was the top defense spender relative to its population in 2008, with the government shelling out more than $2,300 per person, over $300 more than the US, which boasts the second largest ratio, the Economist reported on Monday.
According to the report, Israel's total defense expenditure was $16.2 billion for the year.
The US is by far the largest overall defense spender, with expenses running to some $607 billion, 41.5 percent of the $1.46 trillion spent on defense needs worldwide in 2008.
China emerged as a growing military spender, increasing its expenditure by 10% in 2008 to $85 billion to overtake other countries and become the second-largest global spender behind the US.
Saudi Arabia and the oil rich states of the Gulf also increased their outlay, with the Saudis spending $38.2 billion, which is sixth in terms of population and ninth overall.
'Obama gives deadline to Israel for Palestine'
US President Barack Obama gives Israel a two-year deadline for the finalization of a two-state solution amid sharply opposing positions in Washington and Tel Aviv over the issue of Palestinian statehood.
President Obama raised the issue of an independent Palestinian state with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during the Israeli official's visit to Washington last month.
According to the report, the plan envisions a Middle East peace deal by 2011.
Haaretz quoted a source in Cairo as telling the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat that Israel's Netanyahu is expected to respond to the proposal within six weeks.
President Obama, who was in Egypt last week to address the Arab and Muslim world, discussed his proposed plan with Egyptian intelligence chief Omer Suleiman and Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit.
The US president has urged the Netanyahu government to set up a Palestinian state and has been "very clear about the need to stop building settlements, to stop building outposts" on occupied Palestinian territories.
Snubbing international calls to halt its settlement expansion, Israel seems adamant to stubbornly pursue the activities.
Israeli Interior Minister Eli Yishai declared on Sunday that he would use all resources in the Interior Ministry, "its branches and its influences over local government" to expand Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories.
The Israeli premier, for his part, has halted all Israeli-Palestinian negotiations aimed at the creation of an independent Palestine and has called previous US-backed agreements into question.
In April, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman sparked controversy by saying that Tel Aviv is not bound by the 2007 US-sponsored Annapolis deal, under which Israel agreed to the creation of a Palestinian state.
US calls for 'immediate' Mideast peace talks
Washington is allegedly pressing Israel and the Palestinians to agree on "a comprehensive peace and normalization of relations".
Washington's envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, on Monday said that US President Barack Obama wants "immediate" talks between the Palestinian Authority and Israel to forge a comprehensive Middle East peace agreement.
"The president has told me to exert all efforts to create the circumstance when the parties can begin immediate discussions," Mitchell told reporters at a Palestinian donors' conference in the Norwegian capital of Oslo.
Such talks, he said, may lead to the normalization of relations between Israel and its neighbors and are in "the security interests of the United States".
Mitchell did not mention whether Hamas, the democratically elected Palestinian government confined to the Gaza Strip, would also be present at the talks.
In an apparent policy shift, President Obama on Thursday invited Hamas to "play a role" in the future of the Palestinian people.
"Hamas does have support among some Palestinians, but they also have to recognize they have responsibilities. To play a role in fulfilling Palestinian aspirations, to unify the Palestinian people, Hamas must put an end to violence, recognize past agreements, recognize Israel's right to exist," Obama said in an address to the Muslim world in Cairo.
The Hamas movement on Monday called on the US to respect democracy as an element essential for the Middle East peace process by holding direct talks with its government in Gaza.
"Dealing with Hamas is vital because he (Obama) cannot deal with people who don't represent the Palestinian people," Mousa Abu Marzouk, the deputy chief of the Hamas political bureau, said.
'US military surge destabilizes Pakistan'
Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi says the US' move to send 21,000 extra troops to war-ravaged Afghanistan could have serious implications for Pakistan.
"Pakistan has talked through political and military ways at all levels to the stakeholders that transferring the problem from Afghanistan to Pakistan will not help resolve the issue," Qureshi said at a news conference with his Turkish counterpart in Islamabad on Tuesday.
The Islamabad government is worried that the US President Barack Obama's move to boost its military presence in Afghanistan could further destabilize Pakistan by pushing more militants across the border.
Increased US military activity may also spark an influx of refugees from insurgency-hit southern Afghanistan into border areas of Pakistan.
Qureshi also added that the US military surge in the war-conflict Afghanistan might also have implications for Pakistan's southwestern province of Balochistan.
Pakistan's Balochistan is already rocked by violence as Baloch rebel groups have for many years campaigned for greater autonomy and control of local resources.
Qureshi urged Washington to pursue non-military solutions to conflict in the troubled Pakistan and Afghanistan. "There should be a civilian surge to promote reconciliatory efforts in Afghanistan to resolve the issue".
Islamabad has repeatedly said that unwise White House policies were strengthening the Taliban and spreading extremism in the volatile region.
Nepal PM set to visit India first after assuming office
Nepalese Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal is likely to visit India soon, on his first official visit abroad after assuming office, indicating that the new government is keen to revive close ties with New Delhi. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already sent an invitation to his Nepalese counterpart shortly after his election to the top post for an official visit to India.
Former prime minister Prachanda last year chose China as the first country to visit after assuming power breaking the established diplomatic tradition. He visited India only after paying a visit to China.
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