时事经纬
08-05-09
奥巴马白宫会晤俄外长
奥巴马说，美俄两国在许多议题上有绝佳的机会重新发展关系，希望讨论建立一个
新的战略武器协议架构。美国与俄罗斯将从5月18号开始讨论削减战略武器条约的替代方案，这项条约将在年底失效。
台可能以观察员参与国际刑警组织
台湾获邀以观察员身份参加这个月举行的世界卫生组织大会之后，再度传出台湾有
可能以观察员身份参与国际刑警组织的消息。如果能够成为国际刑警组织的一员，
台湾不但能够透过国际通报系统协助缉拿要犯，同时对于跨国犯罪也能够进行全面
性的通缉。国际刑警组织的会员国可以分享总部的资料库档案资源，包括恐怖份子
名单，军火及人蛇走私的资料。
美国国防部削减导弹防御项目预算
导弹防御项目预算削减主要涉及一般性导弹防御项目，如陆基中程防御系统和“爱
国者”ＰＡＣ－３型防空导弹项目。而“宙斯盾”弹道导弹防御系统预算将会从2009财年的11.7亿美元增至2010财年的18.6亿美元。战区高空区域防御系统的预算也将从8.82亿美元增至11.2亿美元。
焦点：中韩担忧日本走上军事大国化道路
中国对日本的导弹防御系统（MD）心存戒备是由于担心MD的“真正目的是为了抑制中国在亚洲的影响力”。中国军方人士也指出，朝鲜不是日本的对手，而日本加强军备始终是把中国置于考虑之内的。
韩国汉阳大学教授金庆敏表示，“日本拥有核武器所需要的所有技术。如果美国无
法阻止朝鲜核开发，那么日本的核武装将更有可能成为现实”。俄罗斯外长拉夫罗
夫4月下旬在首尔的会议上谈及日本的持核论称“日本甚至出现了应该拥有核武器的
言论”。另一方面，韩国智库“东亚研究院”的舆论调查显示，认为“韩国也应该拥有核武器”的人占62.7%，比五年前增加了12个百分点。
中国就马越联合提交外大陆架“划界案”表明立场
中国常驻联合国代表团７日就马来西亚和越南６日联合提交的２００海里外大陆架
“划界案”向联合国秘书长潘基文提交照会，要求大陆架界限委员会按相关规定不
审议上述“划界案”。
俄罗斯“凯旋”S-400防空系统将首次亮相阅兵式
俄罗斯“凯旋”S-400防空系统将首次于9日在莫斯科红场举行的阅兵式上亮相。
今年的阅兵式上将有9000多名俄军官兵、112辆军用装备和70架飞机在红场亮相。
欧盟拉开“东部伙伴”关系序幕
欧盟在布拉格揭开了同白俄罗斯、乌克兰和格鲁吉亚等前苏加盟共和国建立"东部伙伴"关系的序幕。然而法国、意大利、西班牙和英国4国政府首脑却没有出席这场峰会。欧盟最重要的几国当中只有德国总理默克尔参加了在布拉格举行的峰会。
格鲁吉亚民族近卫军前指挥官参与军事叛乱被捕
俄罗斯展开百年来最大军队改革
2008年8月俄罗斯军队便在南奥塞梯战争中击退了格鲁吉亚军队。这场战争暴露了俄军的弱点，如武器故障、士气低落等等。据称，在未来数年里，20万官兵将被裁掉。此次改革的目的是使俄罗斯军队更加精简、快速、有效。
俄国和北约互驱外交官 中亚博弈升温
俄媒体称列宁遗体可能迁往白俄罗斯首都明斯克
俄罗斯高层消息人士日前透露，弗拉基米尔
列宁的遗体可能迁往白俄罗斯首都明斯克。调查显示三分之二的俄罗斯人支持这一计划。据称，白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科计划模仿红场的列宁墓在明斯克修建一个类似的墓地。俄罗斯此前曾表示，列宁遗体安葬问题“属政治范畴，与文化遗产保护无关”。
压力测试结果出炉 资金缺口升至750亿
19家金融机构中，9家能安全运营；10家必须提高资本储备。美国银行需筹资340亿
美元，富国银行137亿美元，花旗集团55亿美元。 美国政府表示，如果经济形势发
展得比预想还糟糕，预计全美19家大型银行将在明年年底前承受高达5,990亿美元的亏损。政府已要求其中十家共筹集746亿美元资本，为自身提供缓冲。奥巴马政府说，美国政府不倾向于要求国会额外注资，银行要靠私人来源筹集未来的资金。压力测试结果公布之后，一些贷款机构宣布发行普通股，以筹集现金。
美成立“911”式委员会调查去年金融海啸的原因
这项法案旨在成立一个独立的两党委员会，遏止金融界的欺骗行为。新委员会将有
权调查美国监管机构和联储局，以及各公司的会计操作情况、行政人员薪酬制度和
特别投资工具的运用情况。根据法案，委员会亦会就欺诈行为、信贷风险机构的角
色和市场的卖空活动进行调查。
中国银行业贷款势头放缓
今年4月份新增贷款约为人民币6,000亿元，这个数字比2008年4月份人民币4,639亿
元的新增贷款高得多，不过较2009年前3个月的新增贷款额明显下降。今年一季度，中资银行新增贷款人民币4.58万亿元，相当于去年全年的新增贷款额。中国央行本周在一份报告中说，对于4月份和接下来的几个月，金融机构和金融企业都需要一段时间来消化。一些分析师表示，今年大幅增长的贷款中有一部分后来被错误地投入到资产市场和银行存款来挣利息，而没有用于实体经济。中国银监会上个月表示，正在对放贷机构进行正常的检查，以确保贷款不被滥用。
中国新增银行贷款投向了哪里？
一季末超储率降低 央行或下调准备金率
一季度，银行超额准备金率大幅下降，主要是由于外汇占款增长缓慢，春节之后央
行开始不断回笼基础货币，以及银行积极地信贷投放。一季度，在央行不断回笼货
币的同时，银行超额准备金率水平逐步下降，货币市场利率轻微上升，这暗示银行
间市场流动性较之前已经有所收紧，预计随著下半年实体经济有效需求的反弹，银
行间的资金还将逐渐收紧。
黄金价格飙升撑起中国腰包
证据显示，中国和俄罗斯都在增加黄金储备。市场分析家预测说，中国最多可能会
将黄金储备扩大到5000吨。中国外汇储备中的黄金储备仅占1.6%，远不及世界银行的平均水平10.5%。去年各国央行卖出246吨黄金，这是10年以来最少的数量。目前美、德无意出售黄金。此外美元走软也促成黄金价格上涨。
日本国家债务达846万亿日元 09年度将破900万亿
照此计算，在08年度末日本国民人均负债约达663万日元。
Stress Tests Results Split Financial Landscape
Under regulators’ worst-case assumptions, the 19 banks
might suffer $600 billion in losses through 2010, on top of
the hundreds of billions that have already vaporized in this
financial crisis. About 9 percent of all loans might sour —
a figure that is even higher than it was during the Great
Depression. One in five credit card loans could go unpaid,
more than double the typical loss rate. Approximately one in
10 mortgages could sour.
Stress Tested: Has Geithner's Bank Confidence Game Worked?
Nouriel Roubini wrote Tuesday in the Wall Street Journal
that the overall positive message of the stress tests "would
be good news if it were credible," but it's not. He points
to the recent IMF report that estimated $2.7 trillion in
U.S. loan and security losses, and his own estimate of $3.6
trillion for the same potential losses. "The financial
system is currently near insolvency," he concluded. Bernanke
disputes the numbers, saying banks have "taken significant
write-downs, they have reserves and there are substantial
earning capacities." But Roubini is not alone in questioning
whether the government used appropriately pessimistic
assumptions in conducting the stress tests, especially as
the financial sector faces a potential flood of commercial
real estate losses that could mirror the residential
market's recent woes.
Still, even if the numbers are based more on positive
thinking than cold hard facts, it's tough not to be
impressed by what Geithner and company have accomplished. In
addition to the boost in public confidence, they've
apparently figured out how to get the banks to support
Geithner's other iffy program, the one designed to rid banks
of toxic assets. Until now, banks have resisted selling the
highly securitized, largely illiquid toxic assets, arguing
they're worth more than the current fire-sale prices being
offered on the open market. But taking them off the banks'
books is key to restarting lending, and the stress tests'
mandate to boost capital may be enough to get the process
started.
Three detained activists of Georgia opposition released
The Georgian chief prosecutor’s office stated on Thursday
that three opposition activists, whom the opposition leaders
demanded to free, were released from the detention center.
On Wednesday, May 6, Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia
Ilia II addressed to the Georgian authorities with a request
“to take a political decision and release three opposition
activists detained on May 5 and ease up tensions this way.”
Netanyahu can be a peacemaker, says Quartet emissary Blair
Pakistan unrest displaces one million: UN
Pakistan's army has launched deadly attacks on Taliban
positions in the restive northwestern Swat Valley in recent
days. As the result up to 200,000 people have left the
area and another 300,000 are on the move or are about to
flee. Some 555,000, counted by the agency since August, are
already in safe areas.
President Ahmadinejad announces candidacy
Registration for Iran's 10th presidential elections draws to
a close with the incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
signing up for another four-year term.
After months of leaving his candidacy in a blur, President
Ahmadinejad accepted the challenge on Friday and officially
registered for re-election.
Iran's presidential elections will take place on June 12. It
will be the tenth since the establishment of the Islamic
Republic in 1979 ended the reign of the country's pro-US
monarch Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
More than 170 people have so far enrolled for the June 12
election, since candidate registration officially began on
May 5.
The registered candidates will be vetted by the Guardian
Council -- an electoral and constitutional watchdog tasked
with overseeing the election and screening the candidates --
before the final line-up is revealed.
Mir-Hossein Mousavi, the last prime minister of Iran
(1981-989), and Mehdi Karroubi, two-time parliament (Majlis)
speaker (1989-1992 and 2000-2004) have announced their
presidential bids.
Secretary of Iran's Expediency Council Mohsen Rezaei has
also announced his decision to run for office.
Zardari predicts long-drawn-out war in Swat
Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari vows his army will
continue offensives against the Taliban in Swat until
normalcy is restored to the volatile valley.
"The operation will go on till the situation returns to
normal," Zardari said at a joint news conference with Afghan
President Hamid Karzai and US Senator John Kerry in
Washington.
The President also renewed Islamabad's commitment to
defeating the terrorists in the whole troubled
militancy-riddled South Asian region.
"There's a realization in the world that it's a regional
problem, a worldwide problem. It is not an Afghan or a Tora
Bora problem. It is not a problem secluded in the mountains
of Pakhtoonkhwa. This realization brings strength to the
fight."
Pakistani army sent extra troops and fresh reinforcements to
the volatile valley Friday after Premier Yousuf Raza Gilani
ordered the army to "eliminate militants and terrorists"
battling government forces in the region.
"The time has come when the entire nation should side with
the government and the armed forces against those who want
to make the entire country hostage and darken our future at
gunpoint," Gilani said in a televised national address on
Thursday evening.
Media reports said army helicopters, artillery and warplanes
pounded suspected Taliban hideouts during the last 24 hours
amid ground operations aimed at retaking the troubled
northwestern Swat Valley.
The troops have killed over 350 insurgents since April 26 --
when the anti-Taliban offensives began from the Lower Dir
and Buner districts, located about 62 miles (100km) from the
capital Islamabad.
Islamabad government says it will force the militants to lay
down their arms, but the ground troops in the valley were
facing tough resistance from the Taliban and its allied
groups in the region.
The armed forces lost at least ten of their soldiers and
several others were injured as fighting intensified in Swat
hills as troops tried to advance toward militant
strongholds.
Sources have revealed that the local Taliban backed by
militants from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan had planted
countless mines around in the towns and were entrenching
themselves for an open ended war.
Red Cross has warned that a major humanitarian crisis is
looming in the region, where an estimated half-million
people were displaced.
The US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 pushed the militants
across the border and into Pakistan. Ever since, the restive
tribal belt between the two neighbors has become a scene of
daily violence.
The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led government has vowed to
crush the militants who seek to take over the country.
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