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时事经纬
15-09-09

美国特使会晤以总理 讨论定居点争议

美国中东事务特使米切尔会晤了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡,督促他遏制在巴勒斯坦人希望建国的土地上兴建犹太人定居点。米切尔定于星期二晚些时候与巴勒斯坦权力机构主席阿巴斯在拉姆安拉会面。

伊朗和世界大国的谈判可能在土耳其举行

欧洲联盟外交政策主管索拉纳说,下个月伊朗和六个世界大国间关于全球安全和经济方面问题的会谈“有可能”在土耳其举行。负责美国政治事务的国务次卿伯恩斯将代表美国出席会议。这将是伊朗一年多以来首次与世界大国会谈。伯恩斯以观察员的身份参加了20087月在日内瓦举行的上一次会议。其他五国包括英国、法国、德国、中国和俄罗斯。

美国特种部队突袭索马里恐怖分子嫌疑人

美国的消息来源说,美国特种部队星期一在索马里南部展发动袭击,打死一名肯尼亚出生的恐怖分子嫌疑人。士兵从至少一架直升飞机上向南部城镇巴拉韦附近的一辆汽车开火,造成两名乘客丧生,另外两名受伤。纳卜汉的尸体已送交美国扣押。纳卜汉受到美国情报部门的通缉,为的是要询问他关于2002年在肯尼亚蒙巴萨一家旅馆和一架飞机遭到袭击的事件。

日本外交官将接任IAEA总干事

IAEA年度大会14日在维也纳开幕,正式批准日本核不扩散与核能担当大使天野之弥出任下届总干事。天野将在121日现任总干事巴拉迪任期届满后正式走马上任,任期为四年。天野之弥说,他将向全世界展现日本实现和平利用核能的形象,其当务之急是处理朝鲜与伊朗核问题。

美驻韩大使再次暗示美朝直接对话可能性

美国驻韩大使凯瑟琳斯蒂芬斯表示,“通过六方会谈框架,美国为对话打开了门户”,不排除美朝直接对话的可能性。但她同时指出“美方对于为对话而进行的对话不感兴趣”,以此提醒朝鲜应以弃核为前提展开对话。

亚行:新兴经济体复苏依然脆弱

亚洲开发银行董事总经理Rajat Nag星期一表示,亚洲新兴经济体虽然在上半年的复苏表现相当强劲,在世界主要经济区中非常突出,特别是中国二季度增幅高达7.9%,但目前亚洲地区的复苏依然相当脆弱,下半年经济增长幅度将会低于上半年。复苏力度减弱的主要原因是发达国家,特别是美、欧贸易需求和市场需求要更为疲软。

出口依赖度很高的新兴经济体不少在6月份看到了出口下滑幅度大幅度缩小,有的甚至出现了回升,但是在7月份,香港、日本、中国等都再次出现出口锐减的现象。根据最新的数据,中国8月份的出口跌幅比7月份扩大0.4个百分点。

纳格指出,亚洲各国政府现在既要注意复苏脆弱的问题,也要关注资产泡沫的问题。如何处理好两者之间的平衡将是决定复苏成败的关键。“这是我们大家都要非常小心以对,需要仔细观察的问题。亚洲的证券市场上涨了很多。许多国家,包括中国,它们的资产价格也涨了很多。现在需要的是敏感的平衡技巧。财政刺激政策非常重要,要确保财政刺激不要在条件不成熟的时候收回,也不要在不成熟的时候收紧货币政策。我们要特别警惕,不要在复苏扎根之前扼杀了复苏的势头。”

纳格承认,衰退期间各国政府投入的大量资金在股市、房地产市场和大宗商品市场等领域造成了价格大幅度上涨。纳格不愿意使用资产泡沫的说法,但还是认为,价格的气泡已经出现。如何对这些气泡加以控制,同时又不伤害复苏的趋势对各国政府都是一个严峻考验。

纳格认为,通货膨胀是一个不能忽视的问题,但是,就亚洲和全球来说,近期还构不成主要问题。“照我们预测,通胀还不能称为主要问题。估计世界许多地方的通胀水平都会处于较低的水平。比如亚洲,今年通胀率会比去年下滑12个百分点。明年会回升到3-4个百分点。今年中国的通胀会下滑0.5个百分点,2010年可能会有轻微的通胀。印度今年可能是2-3%,明年为3-4%。”

他表示,拟制通胀的因素一个是产能过剩,再一个是各主要经济体内部需求还比较疲软,再加上失业率普遍很高。

亚行预测,亚洲地区的新兴经济体的经济增长在2010年将会达到7%,接近金融危机前的水平。在2003年到2007年之间,这些经济体的发展速度为8.3%。危机发生之后,这个速度下降到6.1%,今年可能下滑到最低点3.5%4.5%之间。

美国消费者将为中国轮胎特保案付出高昂代价

中国对美出口轮胎大部分都是低价轮胎,新实施的特保关税将给购买低价中国轮胎的消费者带来最为沉重的打击,这一市场的供应短缺将导致零售商纷纷从其他国家寻找替代资源。这一关税将给低端轮胎市场带来最为沉重的打击,因为美国国内生产低价轮胎无法盈利。这些制造商也和中国人一道反对轮胎特保案。

Del-Nat Tire总裁Jim Mayfield表示,未来60天市场就将见到大幅度提价举措。Del-Nat Tire是中国轮胎在美国的主要进口商和分销商。他预计,“入门级”轮胎价格可能会增长20%-30%。低端轮胎的价格大约在每个50-60美元,而顶级轮胎售价在200-250美元。

印尼和巴西等国的制造商填补这一市场空缺可能需要数月的时间。而如果轮胎制造商想要进入低端轮胎领域,就必须调整生产线,制造美国消费者青睐的尺寸和类型的轮胎,这个过程可能耗资不菲而且复杂。

梅菲尔德表示,市场可能还会出现供应短缺,因为当前的供应量不高,进口商可能很难寻找到替代资源。很多进口商数周之前就停止对中国轮胎下订单了,他们担心如果贸然下单的话,等中国轮胎抵达美国的时候,可能就会被征收高额的关税。大部分中国进口轮胎都是打上零售商品牌和少有人知的折扣品牌出售的。很多此类轮胎都是通过大型零售商和全美汽车连锁店发售的。

贸易保护主义风潮愈演愈烈

Global Trade Alert (GTA)周一发布的报告显示,贸易保护主义风潮正在袭来,近期的中美贸易摩擦不过是冰山一角。GTA的报告称,现在各国政府正在计划、但尚未付诸实施的贸易保护措施多达130项。其中包括提供政府援助资金、提高关税、限制移民以及给予出口补贴等。

举例来说,俄罗斯正计划全面提高关税;南非正在修改政府采购条款,惠及非白人开办的本土企业;日本则在调整卫生政策,以限制食品进口。

当今的贸易保护措施花样繁多,使得它们有别于上世纪30年代有名的基于关税的经济战争。经济学家表示,现在即便是最坏的情况也不至于发展到那一步,但是贸易保护主义的暗涌对经济复苏来说却肯定是个实实在在的阻碍。预计2009年全球贸易将缩水10%

这就是为什么在二十国集团(G20)峰会于924-25日在匹兹堡召开之前,经济学家和政治家对贸易条款高度关注的原因所在。

在刚刚过去的周末,政界和经济界人士彷佛看到了一场贸易战的雏形。上周五奥巴马政府宣布在从926日起的三年时间里,将向中国产汽车轮胎征收25%35%的进口关税,这将使占美国市场17%的轮胎面临定价过高的问题,并迫使零售价水涨船高。中国政府周一表示,已就美国的惩罚性关税措施向WTO提起了正式申诉。就在周日,中国商务部(Ministry of Commerce)发表公告称,将对美国产汽车部件以及肉鸡产品启动反倾销审查。

China Watched for Sign of New Leader

Analysts will watch the meeting, the annual plenary session of the party’s 17th Central Committee, to see whether Vice President Xi Jinping is given the additional title of vice chairman of the Central Military Commission.

Such an appointment would be seen as a confirmation that Mr. Xi, 56, is set to succeed President Hu Jintao when Mr. Hu’s second term ends in 2012. Any Chinese leader must have experience in leading the military, which is under party control. Mr. Hu was awarded the same post in 1999, three years before he became the party’s general secretary in 2002.

Mitchell makes last push for concessions on settlements

George Mitchell's meeting with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu came a day after the Israeli leader rejected US calls for a settlement freeze.

Netanyahu had said plans to build nearly 3,000 new apartments in the West Bank would remain on course and that there would be no restrictions on expanding Jewish neighborhoods in east Jerusalem.

Netanyahu reiterated his willingness to suspend for a limited time any other new construction in the West Bank, hoping that would be enough of an overture for the Americans and the Palestinians. But that trade-off hasn't elicited much enthusiasm in either quarter.

As they entered their meeting, Mitchell expressed hope of bringing "this phase of our discussions to early conclusion" and to "move forward in our common search for comprehensive peace in the region."

Mitchell said he hoped in his meetings with Netanyahu, and later Tuesday with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, to bridge the differences and set the stage for the first encounter between the Palestinian and Israeli leaders since Netanyahu took office in March.

On Monday, Israeli diplomatic officials had said that it was unlikely that Tuesday's meeting would lead to any declaration of a US-Israel agreement on the settlement issue, but rather to a further "narrowing of the gaps" that might enable the relaunching of diplomatic negotiations with the Palestinians.

The officials stressed, however, that whether or not Netanyahu, Abbas and US President Barack Obama met on the sidelines of next week's UN General Assembly was not up to Israel, since Jerusalem had already said it was willing to start talks immediately. Rather, the officials said, the PA would have to decide whether it would come to the negotiating table even though Israel would not agree to a total settlement freeze.

The Prime Minister's Office issued a statement Monday night saying "a meeting has not yet been set to launch the diplomatic process."

Also Tuesday, Israeli officials said that President Shimon Peres met clandestinely with chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat in Jerusalem last week to try to pressure the Palestinians to meet with Netanyahu.

Turkey to 'host' talks between Iran, West

As Iran sets October 1 as the date for wide-ranging talks with six world powers, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana says Turkey will probably host the meeting.

"It has not been finally decided, but I think very likely it will be Turkey," Solana told reporters in Brussels when asked about venue of talks between Iran and the West.

The meeting arrangements come after Iran presented its new package of proposals to the six major powers -- Russia, China, Britain, France and the US plus Germany --, aimed at solving global issues.

Solana added that Western policy remained "twin track" -- to offer incentives to Iran in exchange for abandoning a military nuclear program.

Western countries, spearheaded by the US and Israel, accuse the Islamic Republic of pursuing a clandestine military nuclear program and have been pressuring Tehran to halt its enrichment activities.

Iran, however, denies the allegations and has called for the removal of weapons of mass destruction worldwide.

While Iran is already under three rounds of UN Security Council sanctions resolutions for its enrichment work, tougher sanctions are likely to be considered if talks fail.

However, Solana said the time was not ripe to talk about fresh sanctions. "At this point in time we are going to try to enter into negotiations," he said. "Let's talk about that."

Solana, who has been representing the West in long-running efforts to resolve disputes over Iran's nuclear case, refrained from giving an exact response when asked how much he thought the new talks could achieve.

"I always intend to try and achieve as much as possible in the negotiations. But it is not the first time we meet. We know each other well," he said.

He hailed the upcoming meeting as a step-change for US involvement and said, "There are some things that are new: the Americans will be present in a formalized manner; that is new, and I think that has to be evaluated positively by the Iranians."

The US State Department said Monday that Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns would attend the October meeting.

Burns will stick to US stance over Iran's nuclear activities and will insist that "the clock is running down" for Iran to be responsive to Washington's concerns, according to the State Department.

The last meeting between Iran and the West took place in July 2008 in Geneva.