时事经纬
02-09-09
美：巴基斯坦科学家是核扩散威胁
美国国务院发言人凯利星期二表示，阿卜杜勒.卡迪尔.汗在巴基斯坦能自由行动可能会给他泄露核机密的机会。这名核科学家五年前承认向伊朗、北韩和利比亚提供了核机密。卡迪尔.汗被软禁在家五年，他在2月份获释。但是他上星期向拉合尔高等法院投诉说，他的行动仍受到限制。卡迪尔.汗说，他应该有权在事先不向当局报告的情况下出外旅行和接待客人。
调查显示美国民众反对阿富汗战争的呼声空前高涨
CNN电视台1日公布的舆论调查结果显示，57%的民众反对美国在阿富汗进行的反恐战争，这一数字创下了2001年美对阿开战以来CNN舆论调查反对率的新高。
驻阿美军8月的阵亡人数达48人，超过7月美军在阿南部展开大规模清剿时的45人，再创单月新高。在4月的舆论调查中，有53%的民众赞成阿富汗战争，46%表示反对。随著美军阵亡人数的增加，反战呼声日趋高涨。
日本民主党执政后，台日关系将如何变化?
美国亚洲协会政策研究部主任Michael Kulma 表示，从鸠山由纪夫过去的言论来看，民主党当选对中日关系来说，是个好消息。“民主党将会远离自民党政府的一些保守政策， 另外，他们也表示他们的外交政策也不会和过去一样一切以美国为主，他们会更加重视亚洲，这对中日关系来说具有正面意义。” 库尔马说：“民主党希望加强和亚洲国家的关系，显示日本对该地区的承诺。 台湾和中国从两岸关系改善中得到好处，日本采取一些正面行动也能帮助两岸关系。”
美主流报纸警告鸠山试图告别美国是危险之举
《华盛顿邮报》1日发表社论称，在日本众院选举中获胜的民主党代表鸠山由纪夫是“没有经验的政治家”。社论提及鸠山有意推行立足东亚的外交政策，认为“日本试图告别美国的做法”对于面临朝鲜核武器威胁的日本及周边地区而言是极其危险的。社论指出，民主党是“原自民党成员、原社会主义者以及社会活动家的复合体”，掌握实权的是“原自民党老大”小泽一郎。社论还介绍了鸠山对美国“市场原理主义”的批判。文章认为在驻冲绳美海军陆战队等问题上存在日美重新谈判的余地，但强调奥巴马政府不能坐视东京“告别”华盛顿。
美国前外交官担心鸠山外交将削弱日美同盟
曾担任美国驻日公使及副助理国务卿的戴明指出，“鸠山外交”可能会削弱日美同盟。戴明认为民主党在竞选纲领中提出的建立“对等的日美同盟”的说法“意思不清楚”。他还提到下任首相鸠山由纪夫对以往的对美外交持批判态度，“使人感觉美国在日本外交中的位置将会下降”。戴明还指出将和民主党联合执政的社民党对日美同盟持否定态度，而民主党代理代表小泽一郎则倡导联合国中心主义，在外交方针上均与鸠山存在区别。
鸠山：结束执政党和内阁讨价还价 新政府将加速决策过程
鸠山说，新政府将通过中央集权制度，和结束日本政坛数十年来执政党和内阁讨价还价的陋习，来加速决策过程。民主党政府计划成立一个全新的国家策略局，该局将负责统筹决策，使过程更加迅速有效。
民主党构想中的体制将类似英国体制，内阁主要扮演制定政策的角色。国家策略局将负责制定预算案的工作。“财政部过去都是把个别部门和机构的预算要求装订在一起，然后给内阁批准……从现在起，新的国家战略局将在首相的主导下，制定政策和拟定国家预算。”
朝鲜高官访华 北京促恢复六方会谈
朝鲜官方宣布，朝鲜副外相金永日9月1日率领代表团访问中国。近期朝鲜做出一系列改善它和美国、韩国等外部世界关系的举动，但和其传统盟友中国的关系却相对冷落。中国呼吁朝鲜返回解决朝核问题的六方会谈，但朝鲜似乎更希望能同美国开启对话。
上海社会科学院的朝鲜问题专家刘鸣估计，中国会借金永日访华的机会积极做工作，促使朝鲜返回六方会谈。据韩国媒体说，朝鲜当局已经邀请美国朝鲜问题特使博斯沃斯9月份访问平壤。博斯沃斯计划此前访问韩国、中国和日本。
中国股市收高 炼油股领涨
中国股市周三收盘连续第二个交易日走高，炼油股领涨，受中国上调成品油价格提振。基准的上证综合指数收盘上涨1.2%，至2714.97点；深证综合指数上涨0.7%，至906.86点。上海和深圳证交所的总成交金额从周二的人民币1,592亿元降至人民币1,356.1亿元。
分析师们称，上证综合指数最近几个交易日可能在2700点左右盘整，市场交投料将淡静，原因是在股市最近呈现振荡走势后，谨慎情绪弥漫市场。中信建投证券(China Securities)分析师陈祥生表示，目前中国股市走向仍不明确，因为经济基本面和流动性前景仍然存在诸多不明朗因素。
石油公司类股周三走高，此前中国于周二晚间宣布将把成品油价格每吨上调人民币300元，该决定从周三起生效。据道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)计算，此次成品油价格上调幅度约为4%-5%。
不过，华泰证券(Huatai Securities)分析师周林表示，市场的反弹走势可能不会持续。周林表示，需要观察中国央行是否会推出更多紧缩政策，因为流动性引发的担忧已成为导致股市近来承压的主要因素。
据《上海证券报》周三报导，中国8月份实际新增贷款规模约人民币3,200亿元，创今年以来月度最低水平，也低于市场预期的人民币5,000亿元。
中国收紧银根冲击全球商品市场
随著中国政府减少新增贷款规模，市场预测中国对原油、铜等原材料的需求减少，冲击著全球商品价格。
上月31日，中国上证综合指数受到政府限制新增贷款的利空压力，比前一天暴跌6.74%，此外，以中国为主要消费国的国际原材料价格也纷纷开始下降。受此影响，韩国国内与原材料有关的基金收益率也不太理想。
据理财专家预测，中国当局将在一段时间内维持紧缩措施。由此，多数观点认为，在中国的原材料需求复苏之前，韩国的原材料基金收益率也将会停滞不前。
上月31日有报道说，中国8月信贷预计新增3000亿元人民币，比原本预计减少1000亿至2000亿元。报道一传出后，当天中国股指爆跌。受此影响，欧洲和美国股市也有所走弱。源自中国紧缩政策的冲击波，还使得以中国为最大需方的原材料市场也遭受重创。
KB投资证券的研究员朱二桓预测说：“自7月起中国政府转向防止经济过热，开始遏制资金流入房地产和股市。估计下半年仍会延续这种趋势。”
三星证券基金研究委员朴镇容（音）预测说：“中国在今年上半年购入了很多原材料以增加库存，但下半年就不会出现那种现象。如果经济没有复苏，原材料价格将在未来一段时间内经历调整，原材料基金也很难期待较高的收益率。”
四新股明日集体"赶考" 专家表示有破发可能
上周发行的四只新股超华科技、宇顺电子、禾盛新材和星期六将于明日上市。新股中有三只的发行价对应的PE都在34倍以上，已经明显偏高。与之前相比本周大市继续走弱，预计本周四挂牌的四只新股首日涨幅将会进一步缩窄。本次IPO重启以来密集发行的新股，尤其是大盘股是导致市场走弱的重要因素，而目前看来管理层并没有放缓发行节奏的意图。
今年IPO重启以来，管理层基本保持著每周审核3家~4家公司IPO申请、发行4只左右新股的密度，而最近半月以来更是每周都有四只新股上市。加上明日这4只，本次IPO重启至今上市新股数量将达20只；此外，本周还有3只新股发行，而启动招股的还有中国中冶这只大盘股，此外发审委还将在今日及周五审核3家公司的首发申请。据《每日经济新闻》报道，本次IPO重启前已过会公司中还有10家公司未启动IPO程序，而新增首发申请过会公司数量则达到23家。
U.S. Is Seeing Policy Thorns in Japan Shift
“The election of a new party could produce new ways of doing things, which we will have to adjust to,” ... “You’ll have this period of unpredictability.”
The big question many in Washington are asking is whether the vote was a harbinger of a deeper change in Japan, away from its historic dependence on the United States.
“There is a fear of dramatic change in the U.S.-Japan alliance,” said Michael Auslin, an expert on Japanese foreign policy at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “No one knows what will happen next, or even who to talk to for answers.”
The Democratic Party struck a chord with its talk of improving ties with China and other neighbors, reflecting the fact that Japan’s $5 trillion economy has grown more dependent on commerce with its neighbors.
Fears of Japanese drift seemed to be confirmed last week when an article by Mr. Hatoyama, excerpted and translated from a Japanese journal, appeared on the Web site of The New York Times. It stirred a hornet’s nest in Washington by casting Japan’s embattled economy as the victim of American-inspired free-market fundamentalism. Yet it also stressed the importance of the American alliance.
Mr. Hatoyama’s views sent many in Washington’s diplomatic establishment scurrying to learn more about him and the Democrats. That highlighted a problem: While American officials and academics have spent decades cultivating close ties with the Liberal Democrats, who have governed Japan for most of the last half century, they have built few links to the opposition.
Some Japan experts said it would be a mistake to read too much into Mr. Hatoyama’s remarks, and Japanese officials privately conveyed that same caution to the Obama administration.
“It was an indication they still haven’t figured out what they’re going to do in power,” said Michael J. Green, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University who served on the National Security Council during the last Bush administration. “This could get confused and dysfunctional for a while.”
Stung by the reaction, Mr. Hatoyama appears to be back-pedaling and engaging in damage control. On Monday night, he said he had not intended for the article to appear abroad, and said it was being misinterpreted. “If you read the entire essay, you will understand that it is definitely not expressing anti-American ideas,” he said.
Professor Green noted that in many ways, relations between the United States and Japan were smoother now than in years past because the trade disputes of the 1980s and 1990s were largely settled.
He said the new government would find that some of its proposals, like reopening talks on the relocation of the Futenma Marine airfield on Okinawa, were unrealistic, given the years it took to negotiate that deal. For the Obama administration, he said, the challenge will be to give Japan’s new leaders a face-saving way to back down.
Japan, experts said, could play a more muscular role in talks with North Korea if, as expected, the Democrats turn down the heat on the issue of Japanese abducted by North Korea decades ago, a perennial sticking point for the Liberal Democrats.
And Obama administration officials said they were eager to dispel perceptions in Japan that a better relationship with China would somehow undermine its alliance with the United States.
“We have no desire to see our defense commitment tested by battle,” a senior official said. “We see no contradiction between Japan reducing frictions with China and a strong Japan-U.S. alliance.”
In recent years, many Japanese have thought the United States took the relationship for granted, paying more attention to China.
Traditionally, the United States has sent high-powered diplomats or political figures to Tokyo. But the Obama administration chose to send a big campaign donor, John Roos, as ambassador, passing over a longtime Asia hand, Joseph S. Nye Jr., who had been championed by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Administration officials counter that Mr. Roos, a Silicon Valley lawyer, will be influential because he has the ear of President Obama.
Political analysts and former diplomats say the Democrats are so sharply divided ideologically — between pacifist former Socialists and flag-flying former Liberal Democrats — that they will avoid treading too heavily on divisive foreign policy issues for fear of splitting the party.
Policy analysts also say the Japanese public would turn against the Democrats if they undermined the Washington alliance, pointing out that the opposition won because of anger with the incumbents’ failed economic policies, not because of a desire to change the nation’s reliance on the United States, which remains widely accepted here.
“They do not have a mandate for changing the alliance with the U.S.,” said Yukio Okamoto, a former adviser to several prime ministers on foreign affairs.
Beijing Limits Information on Burmese Refugees Remaining in China
Chinese officials imposed an information blackout on Tuesday on the situation along its border with Myanmar and began taking down tents that had sheltered an estimated 30,000 refugees who fled into China to escape recent fighting between Myanmar’s military and ethnic rebels.
The Chinese authorities withheld comment on the border situation on Tuesday, aside from saying, in a Foreign Ministry briefing, that “necessary humanitarian assistance” was being provided. And they began ordering foreign journalists to leave the area around Nansan and Genma, Chinese towns on the mountainous border where the refugees have been housed in seven separate camps.
While about 4,000 refugees had returned to Myanmar on Monday, the day after the fighting ended, the pace has since slowed significantly. Only about 30 people crossed the border into Myanmar in a half-hour period on Tuesday morning, The Associated Press reported.
“It seems to be slowing down,” one foreigner near Nansan said in a telephone interview on Tuesday. “There’s still a large number of refugees in and around Nansan, both in the camps and hanging around.” The foreigner, who asked not to be identified, said Chinese Army troops had stepped up patrols in the area.
An unknown number of those who fled to China during the fighting are Chinese citizens who have been conducting business in Myanmar, where China is building dams and other projects and has extensive mining ventures. They are unlikely to return soon.
China has insisted that the northern Myanmar region of Kokang is safe and stable after the fighting last week, in which hundreds of government troops overwhelmed an armed ethnic group, breaking a cease-fire that had prevailed for two decades. Human rights groups and others have warned that the junta’s actions could ignite a wider conflict in the area, where other, better armed, ethnic groups also are resisting government control.
Thai newspapers and The Irrawaddy, an independent magazine that focuses on Myanmar, have reported that the government is sending fresh troops into the northern state of Shan in an attempt to consolidate its control there. The army wants the rebels to disarm and join a government border patrol force, as required under a new Constitution. Most of the rebels have resisted the order, which would effectively place them under government control.
Myanmar’s military junta apparently seeks to take control of the region before elections, the first in almost 20 years, that are scheduled for next year. Outside monitors accuse the military junta of brutal human rights violations as part of its effort to stay in power. The Myanmar government has said that 26 of its soldiers and at least 8 rebels died in three days of battles.
The Myanmar conflict has thrust the Chinese government, one of Myanmar’s only staunch backers, into an awkward situation. China has provided diplomatic support to the junta in exchange for access to its considerable mineral wealth and cooperation in efforts to suppress a growing cross-border trade in heroin and other illicit drugs. The flood of refugees prompted the Chinese to issue muted criticism of the junta, on Friday calling for it to secure Myanmar’s borders.
'Obama sends second letter to Iran'
US President Barack Obama has reportedly sent his second direct message to Iran's leading authority, the Leader of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Tabnak, a semi-official Iranian news service, on Wednesday said the country's most prominent political figure has received a second letter, but did not mention the exact date the correspondence had reached Tehran.
"The first letter was dispatched in Ordibehesht, before the elections," Tabnak said referring to the second solar month of the Persian calendar corresponding to 21 April to 21 May.
According to the report, Obama's first letter was not left without an answer.
"The leader at the time replied to the letter by providing argumentation," the report added without revealing the contents of the letter.
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